We have completed more than 70% of the league stage fixtures at the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025 and still not even a single franchise has confirmed their berth for the playoffs. After 51 matches, the Gujarat Titans (GT), however, have the best chance not only to quickly qualify for the next stage but also to do so in such an emphatic manner that they finish in the top two. Finishing in the top two will give teams a massive second chance even if they blip in Qualifier 1.
IPL 2025: DC, LSG & KKR not to qualify
Well, two teams have already been knocked out of IPL 2025. The first one was, of course, the Chennai Super Kings (CSK), who got knocked out after their crushing loss to the Punjab Kings (PBKS). On the very next day, the Rajasthan Royals (RR) followed CSK as they too got eliminated. Mathematically, eight teams are fighting for a top-four finish. However, even among those, three franchises can be considered out of the race.
The Lucknow Super Giants (LSG), Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and SunRisers Hyderabad (SRH) have a combined chance of a mere 20%. That simply paints a clearer picture. A single loss to any one of these franchises will end the game then and there at IPL 2025.
Interestingly, the Delhi Capitals (DC) are in an interesting spot. They started the campaign with five wins in their first six games. At one point in time, they had almost an 86% chance to qualify. However, now, it is just 52%. This is because they have fallen off the track, losing three of their last four fixtures. They can still reach 18 or 20 points but for that, DC would need to pull their socks up.
GT, RCB, MI & PBKS to qualify?
The best four placed teams are Gujarat Titans (GT), Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB), Mumbai Indians (MI) and the Punjab Kings (PBKS). Barring PBKS (70%), all the three other franchises have over an 80% chance of qualifying, simply signifying that their one foot is already in the knockout stages.
GT recorded a much-needed win over SRH on May 2 and they are now possibly just one win away from qualifying. So is RCB. For Mumbai, it has been a tournament of two halves. They had a horrible start, losing four of their first five games. But since their surprising win over DC in New Delhi, MI have been on a roll and have won six back-to-back games.
IPL 2025 playoff qualification chances
| Team | Probability |
|---|---|
| Gujarat Titans | 91% |
| Royal Challengers Bengaluru | 85% |
| Mumbai Indians | 81% |
| Punjab Kings | 70% |
| Delhi Capitals | 52% |
| Lucknow Super Giants | 12% |
| Kolkata Knight Riders | 8% |
| SunRisers Hyderabad | 0.02% |
| Rajasthan Royals | 0% |
| Chennai Super Kings | 0% |
Teams’ chances to finish in top 2
| Team | Probability |
|---|---|
| Gujarat Titans | 62% |
| Royal Challengers Bengaluru | 45% |
| Mumbai Indians | 39% |
| Punjab Kings | 33% |
| Delhi Capitals | 18% |
| Lucknow Super Giants | 2% |
| Kolkata Knight Riders | 0.9% |
| SunRisers Hyderabad | 0% |
| Rajasthan Royals | 0% |
| Chennai Super Kings | 0% |
IPL 2025 Points Table
| Team | Mat | Won | Lost | NR | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mumbai Indians | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 14 | +1.274 |
| Gujarat Titans | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | +0.867 |
| Royal Challengers Bengaluru | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | +0.521 |
| Punjab Kings | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | +0.199 |
| Delhi Capitals | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 12 | +0.362 |
| Lucknow Super Giants | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 10 | -0.325 |
| Kolkata Knight Riders | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 9 | +0.271 |
| Rajasthan Royals (E) | 11 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 6 | -0.780 |
| Sunrisers Hyderabad | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -1.192 |
| Chennai Super Kings (E) | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 4 | -1.211 |
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